$100 Oil Holds Despite Record Reserve Release — Middle East Export Routes Collapse
Oil prices surged sharply higher despite a record coordinated reserve release, with Brent crude rising 9% to break above $100 per barrel and WTI climbing near $96 per Bloomberg as of 12 March 04:07 UTC, and WTI reaching $93.96 (+7.69%) with Brent at $91.98 (+4.76%) per OilPrice.com as of 11 March 23:59 UTC. CNBC reported as of 12 March 01:07 UTC that the 400 million barrel coordinated drawdown covers only up to a quarter of the 20 million barrels per day supply gap caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, with traders operating in what analysts described as "panic mode."
Two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, prompting Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organisation to suspend all oil terminal operations per Bloomberg as of 12 March 01:29 UTC. Separately, Oman evacuated all vessels from its Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal per Bloomberg as of 12 March 02:44 UTC — one of the few remaining export corridors accessible outside the Strait of Hormuz — further compressing already strained export infrastructure.
The U.S. confirmed it will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over approximately 120 days per PBS as of 12 March 00:02 UTC, as part of the broader IEA coordinated action. Iran's IRGC declared that "not one litre of oil" will pass through the Strait of Hormuz per Al Jazeera as of 11 March 20:33 UTC, explicitly warning of $200 per barrel oil if strikes continue, with Brent having already spiked near $120 per barrel earlier in the week per Fox Business as of 12 March 00:25 UTC.
The price action since the previous brief has materially deteriorated. Brent breaking $100 per barrel — despite a confirmed, record-scale reserve release — represents a decisive market verdict: the IEA's intervention is being priced as a temporary buffer, not a structural fix. The suspension of Iraqi terminal operations and the evacuation of Oman's Mina Al Fahal terminal are especially significant, because they eliminate export capacity that existed outside the Strait of Hormuz itself — closing off the limited alternative routing that importers had left available. The cumulative effect is a supply disruption that is now broader in geographic scope than the Hormuz chokepoint alone.
The forward risk profile has worsened since the last brief. With Iraqi terminals suspended and Oman's terminal evacuated, the physical infrastructure for Middle East crude exports is contracting faster than reserve releases can compensate. Iran's explicit "not one litre" declaration removes any ambiguity about intent and sharply elevates the probability of a sustained, rather than tactical, Hormuz closure. Compounding the outlook, the planned U.S. SPR repurchase of approximately 200 million barrels within a year — as noted by PBS — means that even if prices stabilise during the 120-day release window, a structurally supportive demand floor for crude will re-emerge once replenishment purchases begin.