Oil Market Brief — March 10, 2026
Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel — approximately 65% above pre-war levels — following the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran beginning February 28, marking the onset of the oil market crisis, before retreating sharply to around $90 per barrel on March 10 in a historic single-session collapse after President Trump stated military goals were "pretty well complete". Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait collectively cut output by more than 5 million barrels per day due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic, while Saudi Aramco's CEO warned of "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets if the blockade continues. Energy Secretary Wright acknowledged ongoing Strategic Petroleum Reserve release discussions but warned price impacts would persist for "weeks," and Wood Mackenzie cautioned that a prolonged conflict could drive oil prices to $150–$200 per barrel for market rebalancing.
Analyst view: The historic ~$30 intraday oil price swing on March 10 — described as the "most epic oil price reversal in market history" — illustrates that current crude prices are being driven almost entirely by political messaging rather than resolved supply fundamentals, given the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to tanker traffic. ING analysts explicitly noted that oil price declines will not be sustained unless physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume, meaning the widening gap between Trump's rhetoric and physical market reality remains the dominant near-term risk factor.